by on maandag, maart 26th, 2012 

“But Lucas my dear, if you run out of poor people, you can always steal from the sick”

REVEALED: HOW VENIZELOS REGIME SECRETLY REMOVED 70% OF MAJOR HOSPITAL, UTILITY & UNIVERSITY BANK ACCOUNT FUNDS TO PAY BONDHOLDERS

Bank of Greece complicit in broadscale embezzlement revealed by respectable Greek health site
The illegally denied default of Greece entered a dramatic new phase this afternoon with the revelation by mainstream Greek public health website Health News that, shortly before midnight on March 8th – the eve of Greece’s psi completion on Friday March 9th – on average 70% of public utility funds in varous large, interest-bearing accounts at the Bank of Greece were raided. These included most of the State’s regional hospital budgets, various universities and (it is alleged) at least one utility company.
The shortfalls came to light late last week and this morning as various hospital purchasing cheques in particular began to bounce. The monies – estimated by one source to total some 1.4 billion euros – appear to have been used to pay off the tiny minority of private sovereign creditors who, under the original terms of their bond purchase, were entitled come what may to full payment of the bond’s yield entitlement.
Setting aside the amoral audacity of this act, it does yet again raise the issue of a Greece so utterly lacking in any real funds in the real world, that to pay off a minute proportion of the bondholders it had to resort to such a desperate measure.
“The Greek government used this money in order to purchase government bonds from various bondholders without getting permission from the bank account owners,” one reliable Athens source told The Slog in commenting on the story, “hospitals and universities have been robbed of hundreds of millions of Euros, absolutely essential for their core functionality.”
On being pointed at the Health News site, The Slog immediately contacted another of many Athens sources who have flocked to this website in recent weeks. This informant in turn offered access to a senior administrator in a major teaching hospital. The person thus contacted told me: “There can be no doubt about this. It isn’t even very subtle. All the monies were withdrawn over a brief period of time on March 8th after normal banking hours. I have spoken to teaching contacts at Universities over the weekend, and it has been confirmed that they too have the same embarrassment. These people are criminals who should be brought to justice. But in the Greece of today, it will not happen”.
One final source told me shortly before posting, “The Bank of Greece is naked in this matter. We ask them for the reasons why this has happened, and they claim to have no knowledge of such things. This is ridiculous. This could not have been done without their cooperation. There is nobody now in Greece we can trust”.
Equally, nobody should be surprised that senior politicians and government officials have conspired to do such a thing. The Venizelos elite has shown itself to be without ethics or remorse in many ways already. The European Central Bank, Brussels, the IMF and even Berlin have also shown a compliant willingness to look the other way or simply ignore the Law if it suits them so to do. But now, I think institutions around the world – and their stakeholders – need to look at what’s happening in southern Europe and ask themselves, ‘Is this really right? Is any cause worth this amount of depravity and deprivation?’
Footnote: sharp-eyed Sloggers may have noticed that last Friday – that ill-starred March 23rd – the Greeks once again postponed the time by which English Law bondholders have to participate in psi. The reason: they aren’t going to participate, and Athens does NOT have the money to pay them…as the above post demonstrates rather well.

source: http://www.infomag.nl/nieuws_item/2012/03/26/exclusive-greek-government-robbed-public-institutions-to-complete-bond-swap/
Sunday, 25 March 2012

Endlich etwas Wahres vom Deutschen!



Der sündige Grieche rechnet sich


Die Kolumne 20. Mai 2011


Kurios, aber wahr: Wohl keiner verdient durch die Krise so viel Geld wie die Bundesregierung. Es ist Zeit, mit diesem Gewinn von rund 10 Mrd. Euro endlich die Zweifler zu beruhigen.
Für Theatralik sind die Griechen zuständig. Die Deutschen können das allerdings auch – wenn es darum geht zu wehklagen, wie viel der deutsche Steuerzahler noch für Griechenland zahlen muss. Und Abgeordnete im Bundestagsrücksitz meckern, dass sie nicht mehr zustimmen könnten, weil unsere große Hilfsbereitschaft jetzt die Schmerzgrenze erreiche.
Das muss so eine Art Phantomschmerz sein. Bis dato hat ja nur der Grieche mehr Steuern zu zahlen, auf Tabak, Wein und überhaupt jeden Mehrwert sind es 23 Prozent, auf Druck der deutschen Kanzlerin. Bei uns liegt der Mehrwertsteuersatz dagegen unverändert bei 19 Prozent. Und in der Koalition wird wieder von Steuersenkungen geredet – nicht von Erhöhung.
Und das ist kein Wunder. Bei genauerem Hinsehen haben die Deutschen ja nach wie vor nichts bezahlt. Im Gegenteil: Wir kriegen sogar was, und die Krisengewinne werden größer. Vielleicht wäre es fürs allgemeine deutsche Bauchgefühl hilfreich, wenn der Finanzminister seinen Griechengewinn da einfach mal ans Volk ausschüttet, sagen wir, an jeden „Bild“-Leser einzeln. Und die FDP.


Gefühlte deutsche Armut
Kleine Erinnerung: Die Griechen haben 2010 via Hilfspaket 110 Mrd. Euro an Krediten zugesagt bekommen, weil vor lauter verselbstständigter Marktpanik keiner mehr griechische Anleihen kauft. Davon tragen die Deutschen nach üblicher Gewichtung gut 22 Mrd. Euro. Und auch das ist nicht geschenkt. Auf den Kredit muss der gebeutelte Grieche Zinsen zahlen, nach Logik der ökonomischen SM-Szene sogar besonders hohe. Was die Lage für das Land de facto nur noch schlimmer macht.
Nur für den deutschen Kreditgeber nicht, der, Gewinn damit macht. Die KfW hat im Auftrag der Regierung in den ersten zwölf Monaten 8,4 Mrd. Euro Kredite an Griechenland verkauft. Zu einem flexiblen Zins, der über fünf Prozent liegt, damit ist aktuell die Rendite gut zwei Prozentpunkte höher als auf deutsche Staatsanleihen. Wunderbar: Das macht immerhin schon knapp 500 Mio. Euro Gewinn, die von der KfW nach Abzug üblicher Gebühren an den Bund überwiesen werden.
Peanuts für den Finanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble, klar. Nicht aber für den – sagen wir – „Bild“-Leser, der sich vor lauter Griechenland-Berichten ohnehin schon ganz arm fühlt. Bei zuletzt noch knapp 2,9 Millionen Auflage täglich und gerechter Aufteilung des Gewinns bekäme jeder Käufer des Informationsblatts 157 Euro.
Und das ist lange nicht alles. Der deutsche Finanzminister profitiert mit jedem Monat Griechenkrise zusätzlich davon, dass Anleger aus den Krisenländern in vermeintlich solide deutsche Staatsanleihen fliehen. Das drückt die Schuldenlast und erklärt, warum die deutschen Defizite so viel besser aussehen. Auch dieser Krisenbonus lässt sich – grob – schätzen. Im Aufschwung 1999/2000 lag der Langfristzins schnell bei 5,5 Prozent (siehe Grafik), im Boom 2006/07 immer noch bei 4,5 Prozent. Jetzt ist das Wachstum höher, was für stärkere Kreditnachfrage und höhere Zinsen spräche. Die Zinsen sind aber nicht einmal auf 3,5 Prozent gestiegen, in der Krise 2010 zeitweise sogar auf knapp über zwei Prozent gefallen – ein Geschenk des Himmels. Für uns.
Es spricht viel dafür, dass die Zinsen ohne Griechenkrise mindestens einen Prozentpunkt höher wären, wenn nicht so viel Geld aus den Krisenländern umgeschichtet würde. Schon ein solcher Aufschlag hätte den deutschen Finanzminister bei einer Anleiheemission von 350 Mrd. Euro (letzte Meldung 2009) entsprechende 3,5 Mrd. Euro Zinslast gekostet. Stattdessen gibt es einen Griechenbonus in gleicher Höhe, den der deutsche Steuerzahler nun spart.
Dazu kommt als Krisengewinn, dass auch Europas Zentralbank hohe Zinsen kassiert auf die Anleihen, die sie den Griechen abgekauft hat. Wenn das in der Größenordnung von 20 Mrd. Euro lag und die Zinsen zehn Punkte über dem Rest der Euro-Zone, macht das einen Gewinn von 2 Mrd. Euro, von dem die Deutschen gemäß ihrem Anteil am EZB-Kapital ein Viertel bekämen: also noch eine halbe Milliarde.
Dazu kann man dann noch rechnen, dass der Euro ohne Griechendrama sicher heute um einiges teurer wäre. Und der EZB-Leitzins ohne Südländerkrise mindestens einen Dreiviertelpunkt höher läge, wie Holger Schmieding, Chefvolkswirt der Berenberg Bank, schätzt. Das bremst Investitionen und kostet 0,3 Prozent Wirtschaftsleistung, von denen knapp die Hälfte in Form von Steuern und Abgaben einem gewissen Herrn Schäuble entgeht.
Nimmt man das alles zusammen, ergibt das locker 10 Mrd. Euro Griechenbonus für uns. Selbst wenn Schäuble davon nur die Hälfte rausrücken würde, bekäme jeder „Bild“-Leser mal eben 1700 Euro – direkt vom Griechen sozusagen. Was für eine wunderbare Vorstellung (FTD-Leser haben so etwas natürlich nicht nötig). Bei voller Ausschüttung könnte man sinnvollerweise gleich noch all jene zum Rechen- und Ökonomiekurs schicken, die gerade die Überlastung deutscher Steuerzahler herbeifantasieren. Und wenn das gut klappt, könnte man sogar noch die FDP dort anmelden. Daran ändert auch der Verweis nichts, dass die Deutschen künftig zum Kapital des Rettungsfonds ESM mehr Geld beitragen sollen. Das ist eine reine Vermögensübertragung – kein Geld, das futsch ist.
Jetzt werden Sie sagen, dass das alles kippt, wenn der Grieche Pleite macht. Mag sein. Nur machen wir trotzdem bisher Gewinn. Und die Erfahrung lehrt, dass ein Staat wie Deutschland über den Vorrang als Kreditgeber eher gut bei einer Insolvenz wegkommt.
Abgesehen davon hängt die Pleite davon ab, wie konsequent andere den Griechen helfen und Garantien gegen Pleitegerüchte geben, statt jede potenzielle Hilfe zu beweinen und zu konditionieren. Nur so ließe sich auch die absurd gewordene Marktpanik stoppen. Und die Griechen könnten wirtschaftlich wieder wachsen, statt an absurd hohen Strafzinsen zugrunde zu gehen. Da muss man in Sachen deutsche Hilfsbereitschaft nur noch ein bisschen nachhelfen: mit dem Griechenscheck vom Finanzminister.


Wednesday, 21 March 2012

REVEALED: HOW PAYING DOUBLE FOR GERMAN SUBS HELPED TO SINK GREECE



12 / 03 / 2012


The Greek nation is facing default for all kinds of reasons that range from insane lending policies by French and German banks to clever schemes worked out by Goldman Sachs to help the Greek Establishment lie to Brussels. But is is also in the mire because of many such cases of official greed and German profiteers. Perhaps, the next time German tabloids start shrieking about ‘lazy Greeks’, they should bear this in mind.
“We paid double for three submarines from Germany,” says an Athenian source who has lodged several incriminating documents with The Slog. Most of this, once again, seems to involve the near-ubiquitous role in German engineering and arms supplies of the multiply corrupt company Ferrostaal. Looking at the numbers, some of this appears to have been German profiteering connected to payoffs: “we give you 3 million euros, you lets us stuff the invoice with another 20 million” and so forth. And always in this farrago of filled pockets lurks the presence of numerous company acronyms MFI, MIE (Marine International), PDM, Zelan etc….all odd joint ventures and often registered in Liberia or Cyprus. All of them have obvious attachments to Greek elite members, and most of them in turn have connections to civil service procurement officers and/or senior politicians.
Several names crop up with menacing regularity….especially those of Yannis Beltsios, Michel Filipidis, Michael Matantos, Tony Georgiades, and his now retired father in law on the Board of Bank of Greece (a major participator in the recent default bond swap conducted by Athens) George Lanaras.
Using the quaint terms ‘related offset transactions and obligations’, MIE’s books for instance (supported by an independent legal investigation pointed out to The Slog) show that Michael Matantos of MIE alone handed on a grand total of 55.1 million euros during the period 2000-2004. Most of this was to oil the wheels (aka grease the palms) in relation to the supply of four submarines from Kiel dockyard.
The individual payments noted in that exhaustive report are horrifying, but relatively small-fry:
Between 2002-04, Ferrostaal paid 7.5m euros to PDM and Zelan. No activity of any substance can be traced to this Cypriot-based duo, and all the record of directors have vapourised. But their job was to ‘facilitate contract awards’ by Greek ministries. ‘The complete lack of any documentation supporting performance by these companies raises serious concerns’, says a confidential German report. In 2004, Dusseldorf prosecutors fingered Sotiris Emmanouil, the head of Hellenic Shipyards, as the recipient of illegal bribes running into millions of euros by yet another intermediary – HDW – and a later report showed he had indeed received 2.2 million euros via an affiliate in October of that year. Again, no evidence of services supplied exists. In July 2007, 11 million euros were handed to shady ‘facilitators’ Dolmarton. No back-up of tasks performed.


Sunday, 18 March 2012

8000 ancient greek artifacts stolen by the Germans


8000 ancient greek artifacts stolen by the Germans during the Nazi occupation


This is the 1946 report, of the Minister of Education A.Papademos(!) that records the antiquities stolen from our museums, during the occupation by the Germans and Italians. The pages that you are reading are only a few of a multi-page report containing full details of what was stolen from the museums, statues and other objects of immense value.

It should be noted that within the next few days the Ministry of Culture will initiate procedures for the return of 8,000 ancient artifacts. 



 image 1 translation:


Livadia Finding:
  1. three earthen vessels of latehelladic period III
  2. three earthen figurines of latehelladic period III
  3. one earthen lamp (roman period?)
  4. one earthen figurine of a woman (half)
Eypalio Findings:
  1. a damaged bronze helmet possibly of the 6th century bC.
From the outskirts of Thebes 
  1. a small calf possibly of the 5th century bC.
Galaxidi findings:
  1. Five bronze coins
  2. from the showcase of the Ephoreion they (the Germans) removed several valuables, silver buckles modernart pottery pieces and rings.
  3. Αt the end they removed a marble column which had been transferred to the Museum from Ag. Theodori region. Among the offenders was also one named Max Luzak.




image 4  translation: 

Patras

....The German military authorities demolished the left corner of the A gate that was well preserved so that trucks can pass. They destroyed also the bottom of the wall so that the top fell after a while and turned into ruins..... 


source: http://www.enikos.gr/politics/24361,To_ntokoymento_ths_ntrophs!.html



Tuesday, 13 March 2012

Le Monde: Greece is a European protectorate



Ramonet Ignacio

Friday 9 mars 2012, by Kaimaki Valia (greek translation), 




The February 21, 2012 is now in Greece, the date of the Great  surrender . It is the day, that with the promise of half a European aid package, the Greek government accepted the humiliating conditions imposed by the "gang of triple A" at the meeting of the Eurogroup, which is controled by Germany: draconian cuts in public spending cuts in minimum wages in the private sector and pensions, redundancy of 150,000 civil servants, tax increases, massive privatizations ...Yet the Greeks had already suffered a real 'financial coup' on 10 November, when Berlin impose an three party government, composed of social democrats, conservatives and the far-right under the Lucas Papademos, former Vice President of the European Central Bank But the sacrifice, after the incredibly tough shock therapy suffered for four years, did not benefit anything.This time, the hit is even more serious, because Athens was asked a huge concession of sovereignty, "probably the largest assigned by a country in peacetime." [1] In fact, Greece was under the supervision of the European Union and, now, regarding the budget and public finances, has only a "limited sovereignty".The attack to Greece was expected. After all,this is an excellent means of exemplary to other Eurozone countries facing difficulties (Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy). As early as July 2011, Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg Prime Minister and President of the Eurogroup [2] was warning: "The sovereignty of Greece would be significantly reduced." [3] In January 27 this year, the British newspaper «Financial Times» has published a 
German document called  Athens to host a permanent commissioner with veto power, to oversee the state budget and to block anything non-permissible by creditors out of Greece. Finally, on the eve of the Agreement, in an interview to the German weekly magazine «Der Spiegel»,  Volcker Kauder , leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Parliament, went further, calling the mission in Greece, "German officials to help Creating an efficient financial management. " The same request was also made  the country's finance minister himself, Philip Ressler.


Not there yet, but the agreement of February 21 states' permanent presence in Greece of a mission of European Commission "to monitor and oversee the balance sheet, and" an enhanced presence of the troika to oversee the permanent debt service ".The 
the assistance funds that were transferred, will be placed in a closed account to which only the troika will have access and not the Greek government.This account shall be used exclusively for servicing the national debt and not paying salaries and pensionsThe new Greek government bonds would no longer be subject to Greek law, but to the British ... And in case of disagreement between Athens and its private creditors, will be judged, not in Greece but in Luxembourg  ... It is not yet official, but all show that the Greek Republic is no longer a sovereign state.


Silently, the European Union reached a new stage. Henceforth, strong states (those with a "triple A" plus France) require the rest, particularly the countries of the region, to change status. This is not just about colonial regime, but much like with a kind of administration in which the great powers applied at the colonial period, the protectorate.For the colonizers, the protectorate was a way to extend the political and administrative influence and put under surveillance foreign lands from which they wanted to seize their wealth, without, however, to bear the inconveniences and costs that 
a clear annexation requiresThe difference with the colony is that "protected state" maintains official institutions, but grants the "British government" on foreign policy and especially its economy and foreign trade.


In such a context we monitor, within the EU especially in the Eurozone, from the beginning (in 2008) of the financial crisis, the apparent loss of sovereignty of weaker states. It is the preliminary phase, before the sad final stage of the European 'protectorate', which matures in Greece.In September 2001, Angela Merkel proposed a new model, the «marktkonforme demokratie» (democracy compatible with the market), which she identified like this: "The establishment of the state budget is a prerogative of Parliament, but we must find ways that the democratic requirement is consistent with the requirements of the market. " [4] The market is now the reference point: the electoral decisions are not get any more by people but by the stock exchanges, banks and speculators. [5]This new anti-democratic philosophy is gaining slowly in Europe. Translated into laws and treaties restricting more and more room for maneuver of governments and act as "autopilot" to subjugate societies and lead to a creeping and secret way towards a federal Europe. From this view, punishment of Greece is the model that threatens every recalcitrant European country. And will be officially rule next July, when the European Stability Mechanism be 
ratified(ESM - Permanent Preservation Fund).


Designed by Angela Merkel and certified by Nicolas Sarkozy, the new ESM is an intergovernmental organization, a kind of European IMF. For now, it goes to ratification by national parliaments, without public debate, [6] although, because of its characteristics, can have devastating effects on citizens. Indeed, the ESM provides financial assistance to countries in need, provided they give a part of their sovereignty, accepting the authority of the EU troika and adopting unscrupulous plans.The ESM is structurally part of the "fiscal pact", adopted on January 30 from 25 of the 27 EU heads of state. The real name of this terrible pact is "Treaty for the stability, coordination and governance Economic and Monetary Union "[7] and is also the result of a German requirement. It obliges signatory states to enter in their constitutions (or at least one law) the famous "golden rule" to keep the budget deficit to less than 5% of GDP. The countries which will not respect this restriction will be accountable to the European Court and would suffer severe penalties.Karl Marx asserted that the industrial era governments were simply boards of the bourgeoisie. Paraphrasing him, we could say that today, in the era of "Europe's" litarchismou "" [8] of Angela Merkel, governments are the boards of the markets.Until when?




Notes
[1] «El País», Madrid, 02/12/21

[2] coordinates and supervises the financial policies and strategies of theEurozone countries. Participating ministers of Finance and Economic Affairs of these countries, who meet once a month

[3] Interview with the German magazine «Focus» 4-7-11

[4] Statement to the German state radio Deutschlandfunk, 1-9-11

[5] See Rafael Poch, «Un documento alemán pide un comisario para Grecia», «La Vanguardia», Barcelona 01.28.12

[6] on 21 February, the French parliament ratified an agreement allowing the creation of the ESM. The majority of Members are not socialists voted against

[7] (COP) or else an enhanced Stability Seehttp://consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/el/ec/127642.pdf.

[8] (COP) play on words austerity and authoritarianism
(translated by GREECE AND WORLD)source:http://www.monde-diplomatique.gr/spip.php?article321

Sunday, 11 March 2012

Greece Default Is Official; Insurance Payouts Triggered


Greece Default Is Official; Insurance Payouts TriggeredPublished: Friday, 9 Mar 2012 | 3:18 PM ET By: CNBC.com


This is why

A group representing dealers in credit default swaps decided Friday that Greek's bond swap constitutes a "credit event" that entitles holders of Greek credit default swaps to compensation.
 
 The "yes" vote by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association triggers roughly $3.2 billion in CDS, which are insurance policies that pay out if a bond issuer defaults. That amount is actually much smaller than many had feared.
The decision was widely expected, and stocks were slightly down after the announcement.
Greece pushed through a bond swap deal on Friday, forcing  bond holders to take a significant "haircut" on the return of their money. The swap was approved by about 84 percent of the holders, and Greece is moving to activate a rule forcing the rest of the bondholders to go along with the deal.
The triggering of that rule, known as the Collective Action Clause, is what prompted the ISDA to decide that Greece has created a "credit event."
“There’s three types of credit events as defined by ISDA,” said Gavan Nolan, Credit Analyst at Markit. “There’s a bankruptcy, a failure to pay and a restructuring.”
“What we’re talking about here with Greece is a restructuring," he told CNBC. "A request is made to the ISDA Determinations Committee—which is the arbiter of whether a credit event has occurred—and they have to agree whether or not it is a credit event.”
Out of the 15 members of the ISDA committee, 80 percent had to agree.
The net volume of CDS on Greece now stands at $3.2 billion, according to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which holds data on credit default swap contracts.
“It’s peanuts really compared to the government bond market," said Nolan. "So I think it’s sometimes overplayed as to how important it is.”


For months now, The Blaze hasmeticulously covered events in Greece as they have
unfolded and, for anyone who has been paying attention, the situationdoes not look
 good. Indeed, many analysts believe that the eurozone crisis will only get worse.
But perhaps you still think it’s just a lot of “Chicken Little” nonsense and that a Greek default wouldn’t be that “that bad.” Well, perhaps this leaked memo from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the organization representing private sector holders of Greek debt in official negotiations, will change your mind.
“[The memo] gives us the most detailed data we’ve seen so far about how the eurozone and the world would be affected by such a move,” writes Business Insider’s Simone Foxman. “It also explains just why EU leaders are doing everything in their power to prevent a disorderly default and Grexit [Greek exit] — the costs would be absolutely astronomical and the fallout uncertain.”
Indeed, judging by the language used in the leaked memo, eurozone leaders are far more afraid of a Greek default than they have been willing to admit.
“And while investors may think that these costs are ‘priced in,’” Foxman notes, “a Greek hard default really might just be another Lehman.”
Which is to say, “disastrous.”
Here are some of the most frightening implications from the IIF’s confidential report (via Athens News and Business Insider):
1. “First, Greece would fail to honor payments on its €368 billion ($486 billion) in debt obligations,” Foxman writes, “That would probably collapse its banking system.”
Indeed, according to the IIF, that would immediately threaten:
  • €91 billion in Greek banks’ obligations to foreign lenders and depositors, €28 billion of which are in the eurozone
  • €247 billion Greek households and companies owe to Greek banks. 15 percent of these loans are already nonperforming.
  • €21 billion that Greek corporations owe to foreign lenders
2. €73 billion of Greece’s debts are held by eurozone countries and the IMF, which means if the small Mediterranean country can’t make its payments . . .
“Additionally, the IIF estimates that the official sector — either governments or bailout funds — would easily have to provide €160 billion ($211 billion) to make sure banks don’t go under, or else force higher capital-to-liabilities ratios through sharper deleveraging,” Foxman writes.
3. The European Central Bank (ECB) could be irreparably damaged. According to IIF estimates, the ECB has as much as €177 billion ($234 billion) tied up in Greece:
  • €43 billion in Greek government bonds purchased as part of the Securities Markets Program
  • €110 billion in Greek government bonds and other securities that domestic banks used as collateral to borrow from the ECB
  • €24 billion in loans to Greek banks through the emergency liquidity assistance program (ELA)
4. Given all the above, there is probably no way that Greece will be able to stay on the euro – or in the eurozone for that matter (via Athens news [emphasis added]):
“Given these financial traumas, it is difficult to conceive that Greece can remain a functioning member of the Euro Area in the event of a disorderly default. The Greek authorities would have little option but to regain monetary policy independence by exiting from the Euro Area and introducing a new national currency…
The issue of whether Greece can remain in the European Union after defaulting and leaving the Euro Area is not clear-cut. The likely imposition of capital controls and possible inability to honor other EU laws and directives would raise important questions.”
5. Perhaps the biggest threat is that, as many analysts have been saying for months, the Greece contagion will spread [author’s note: can we call it a Greece Fire? Has anyone done that yet? If not, we claim it]. In fact the IIF believes the fears about the possibility of a Greek contagion are actually understated:
Financial linkages are potentially more powerful, especially since market developments since the onset of the crisis in 2007 have highlighted a propensity for “runs” to occur on a scale and at a pace that had previously been unimagined. Many policy makers incorrectly believed that the fallout from a Lehman bankruptcy would be contained, since markets had been apparently pricing in a significant default risk well ahead of the actual event.

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